In the first quarter of the year 2016 beer production unexpectedly rose in Russia. But the growth is due to the introduction in the beer market EGAIS system, because of which the illegal producers have been forced out of the shadows.
In the first three months of Russian brewers produced 1,57 billion liters of beer, Rosstat data show. This is 5,5% more than in the same period last year. In absolute volume growth amounted to 93,6 million liters. RBC Growth confirmed in Rosalkogolregulirovanie (PAP), which calculates the amount based on the declarations provided by the manufacturer. Brewers regulator reported that production for the quarter amounted to 1,55 billion liters against 1,45 billion liters a year earlier (an increase 6,9%).
Monthly statistics show even greater growth - March 2016 year, according to industry analysis center TSIFRRA was produced 725 million liters of beer. This is 11,2% more than in March 2015 years 34,2% and higher than in February 2016-th.
Growth has become a surprise for the market: beer production has been falling continuously in Russia since 2007 (see chart), and before the beginning of 2016, market participants and analysts agreed that it would fall this year too. "Ahead of us is another difficult year ahead of us. According to our forecasts, the beer market will continue to decline, "the words of the president of the largest Russian brewing company Baltika, Yacek Pastushki, were quoted in the company's announcement in February this year. The senior analyst of Euromonitor International, Georgy Grebinsky, forecasted an annual decline in the market by 2020% until 1,5, calling the reasons for the decline in the purchasing power of the population, the growth of retail prices against the ruble weakening, the increase in excise taxes (the excise tax on beer from 1 rose from 18 to 20 rubles for 1 l) and the introduction for the brewers of the electronic accounting system EGAIS (became mandatory for beer producers and wholesalers from 1 January 2016).
Brewers associate statistical growth with the introduction of the EGAIS: it forced small and medium-sized producers, who previously underestimated production volumes, to step out of the shadow and start declaring the entire volume in the system, they believe. Real sales of beer, despite the growth in production indicators, have not grown, said the chairman of the Council of the Union of Russian Brewers Andrei Gubka. "We do not see a growth in sales, but at the same time we fix the overall growth in production," agrees the vice-president of the Baltika Brewing Company Alexei Kedrin. Sponge adds that at the beginning of the year, on the contrary, sales were quite strong, because a significant part of retail outlets did not have time to connect to the EGAIS.
The difference between the growth of production and sales and support data TSIFRRA: according to the agency, in the first quarter 1,88 billion liters of beer were sold in Russia - 2,6% less than in the first quarter of the year 2015. In the record in terms of growth of production was sold March 652 million liters of beer - to 3,1% less than in the year 2015.
"This reduction in the difference between the volume of production and the volume of retail sales could indicate only one thing - in the legal retail presence is reduced unaccounted illegal products," - explains the situation chairman of the Union of Alcohol Producers (SNAP), Dmitry Dobrov.
ACCOUNTING AND CONTROL
According to the provisions of the federal law "On State Regulation of the Alcohol Market" (171-FZ), alcohol retailers (shops and public catering) were to register the purchase of alcohol products from wholesalers with 1 January 2016. To fix their own sales of alcohol to consumers, retail is required from 1 July 2016. Thus, in the first half of the year, stores have the right to sell alcohol without being connected to the EGAIS if they bought the goods before 1 January 2016. Accepting new products from suppliers without connecting to the system, they do not have the right and risk losing their alcohol license. According to the data of the Federal State Unitary Enterprise "CentreInform" (responsible for connecting market participants to the EGAIS and providing technical support for the system), at the beginning of May 2016, about 1500 beer producers were registered in the EGAIS system.
Previously, brewing companies claimed that unlike the strong alcohol market, on which this problem is generally recognized, there is no shadow sector in beer production. This was one of the main arguments of the brewers against the EGAIS. "We believe that the introduction of the EGAIS for beer is an excessive regulation measure that creates additional administrative barriers," RBC told 2015 in the summer of the Director of Legal Affairs and Corporate Relations "SUN InBev" (the Russian "daughter" of the world leader in brewing AB InBev) Oraz Durdiev. - More than 80% of all beer in the country is produced by four largest international companies, which pay in full all taxes. There is no illegal production of beer in the country. "
In the strong alcohol market, which was connected to the EGAIS in the 2006 year, the introduction of the new system, on the contrary, provoked a crisis. Production volumes fell by 30%, about a quarter of distilleries were closed or switched to illegal position, recalls Drobiz. "But then the wholesalers and retailers were not connected to the system and could easily trade in illegal products. In addition, EGAIS was periodically disconnected, leading to long downtime of the plants. Now the statistics shows a positive and in strong alcohol: in the first quarter, legal vodka production grew by 4%, and in March - by 28%, "the expert says.
Now brewers recognize that the informal sector is still there. "Of course, we are not talking about the largest beer producers in the number of international companies - their business has always been clean, - says Andrey Sponge. - However, many small and medium producers, obviously underestimated their production. " "Large and" white "with the introduction of EGAIS have benefited, for them nothing has changed, and those who hide and do not show the volume, have to take shared by all the rules and to adjust its business model" - agrees Cedrenus of "Baltika ".
Director Vadim TSIFRRA Drobiz believes that most of the "legalized" volumes account for regional producers: it draws attention to the fact that a large number of regions of the beer production increased dramatically after EGAIS implementation, and sometimes several times (see picture.). "The new system is scared retail, for which the sale of alcohol - this is a serious share of the revenue," - said the expert. Now goods at retail ship can not be produced without fixing parts in EGAIS.
In the middle of 2015, searches were conducted at the office of one of the largest regional beer producers, OOO Trisosensky Factory. Soon a criminal case was filed for an article on tax evasion in an especially large amount. In October 2015, the investigation brought charges against the owner of the company from the Ulyanovsk region to Mikhail Rodionov. According to the investigation, in 2013, Rodionov avoided paying excises, understating the volume of beer produced by the "Trisososenskiy Plant" LLC and underpaying the tax of 2,1 billion rubles. The investigation in this case is conducted, to the plant, one of the largest taxpayers in the Ulyanovsk region, suits for bankruptcy.
Representatives of small breweries agree that their market sector is still partially in the shade. "Who worked" in white ", he continued, who worked" in black ", he had to show something," - told RBC co-owner of a large producer of craft beer AF Brew Nikita Filippov. "Many people did not show anything at all," says co-owner of the Hophead craft brewery and the network of pubs of the same name, Eugene Zhebenev. According to him, small manufacturers still began to fix their production volumes in the EGAIS, since, working outside the system, it is now impossible to ship the products to legal retail: shops connected to the EGAIS will not accept a batch, information about which is missing in the system.
According to Euromonitor Int., In recent years, small players have increased their total share in the beer market, even taking into account the concealment of part of the production volumes. The four largest producers of beer in Russia are Baltika (owned by the Danish Carlsberg), United Heineken Breweries (Dutch Heineken), SUN InBev (American-Belgian AB InBev) and Efes Rus (Turkish Anadolu Efes) for three In recent years, the market share has been reduced from 78 to 72%, according to Euromonitor. The reason was the growth of independent regional breweries and producers of so-called kraft beer - premium varieties made according to original recipes and enjoying growing popularity in large cities, according to an article by the analyst Euromonitor Georgy Grebinsky in the industry magazine "The Russian Food Market."
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