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New Year by degrees

Retail sale of alcohol in Russia continues to decline. The main reason - reducing the number of alcohol consumers because of the fertility decline in 1990-ies. In the New Year's holidays do not expect sales downturn, analysts say.

The alcohol market in Russia continues to decline. According to Rosstat, reports the RNS, the retail sale of alcohol fell by 2016% compared to January for the first nine months of the year 2 - September last year - up to 72,5 million decaliters.

The fall recorded in all categories, with the exception of cider and mead - in these segments grew by 34,8%. Hardest reduced sales of low-alcohol products - 11,7%. In the other categories of reduction in demand does not exceed 5%.

Continuation of the overall fall of the Russian alcohol market, which from the beginning of the year fell by 2%, in any case should not be regarded as a trend in the sobering Russians said RNS director of the Center of Federal and Regional Alcohol Markets Research (TSIFRRA) Vadim Drobiz. According to him, in times of crisis increases the consumption of alcohol in any state, regardless of the economic development, the growth observed in the first place due to strong liquor, especially cheap and illegal.

But with the growth of per capita consumption in general, alcohol consumption may decrease due to demography, that is because of the decrease in the number of consumers. Since 1990, the birth rate in Russia declined by half compared with the last years of the Soviet Union, and 2008-m consumers in this demographic group took to the alcohol market and brought down his beer sector, and in 2012 year - wine, explains Drobiz.

He predicted that the alcohol market crisis will drag on for years to come. "Their further reduction, according to my forecast, will continue until 2020 and 2024 years, that is, 12 years each. In 2018-2019 years will the crisis on the market of strong alcohol, and he, too, can last 12 years ", - he concluded.

Celebration with alcohol

Experts do not expect that against the background of general decline in alcohol sales fell sharply and sales in the New Year holidays. In the period of New Year purchases in the legal retail no significant ups or downs should not wait, Drobiz said.

If the trend continues, the New Year will be a slight reduction in consumption compared to the same period last year, said a senior analyst Marat Ibragimov BCS. In the New Year holidays Russian residents can switch to domestic wine, which is more consistent with the trend of import substitution, he said: "It is cheaper and in general the trend is."

Reduction of alcohol sales will not be the holidays because holidays Russian citizens do not like to save, says Deloitte partner Vladimir Biryukov. "According to our research, the Russians at the time of the holidays do not like to save money on food and drink, so I would not expect a large decline in sales during the Christmas holidays," - he says.

According Biryukova, now there is a general trend of redistribution of the shopping cart towards cheaper types of goods, and alcohol is no exception. "On the other hand, during the holidays probably it will save a little less than it does in real life, because in the Russian person loves holidays pampered", - he added.

Christmas sales are unlikely to offset the decline in sales for the year, but next year alcohol market can expect some stabilization, Biryukov hopes.

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