In just one week, purchase prices for wheat in Russian ports declined by almost 6% - to 10,4 thousand rubles. for a ton, calculated "Sovecon".
The reasons for this - the emerging strengthening of the ruble and competition in international markets by farmers in Argentina and Australia. The current situation has already compelled market participants to prepare for a future price collapse in the domestic market.
Purchasing prices for Russian fourth-class wheat in deep-water ports for the week decreased from 11,1-11,3 thousand rubles. Up to 10,4-10,6 thousand rubles. For a ton, which led the market participants to prepare for the future collapse, told the director of the analytical center "Sovecon" Andrei Sizov to Kommersant. Similar data - a drop from 11,3 thousand rubles. Up to 10,6 thousand rubles. For a ton of wheat with a protein 12,5% - leads and deputy director of the department of strategic marketing "Rusagrotrans" Igor Pavenskiy. In small ports, the fall in prices was even more noticeable - from 10 thousand to 8,9 thousand rubles. Per tonne, he adds. At the same time, due to lower prices, the supply of grain in ports decreased by 60-70%, as agrarians are not ready to sell at current prices, said Dmitry Rylko, director general of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR). The main reasons are the continued strengthening of the ruble and growing competition against the background of entering the world market of Argentina and Australia, explains Mr. Pavensky. "The demand for Russian wheat as a whole remains sluggish," Mr. Sizov confirms.
In December 2016, Russia exports about 3 million tons of wheat against 3,8 million tons a year earlier, because of the winter storms interfere in ports, explains Igor Pavensky. In the center of "Sovecon" the volume of wheat exports for December of this year is estimated at 2,35-2,45 million tons. Since the beginning of the season, Russia exported about 20 million tons of wheat, which is 1,5 tons less than in July-December 2015 years, praised Mr. Pavensky. On ports account for about 44,5% of shipments: 8,9 9,6 million tons million tons against last season, he adds.
Average prices for cereals in the European part of Russia last week mostly decreased, says Andrei Sizov. According to him, the wheat of the third class fell by 50 rubles, to 10,675 thousand rubles, the fourth class - to 150 rubles, to 9,225 thousand rubles, the fifth - to 100 rubles, to 8,075 thousand rubles. Per ton. The collapse in purchasing prices for Russian wheat may lead to a further drop in domestic prices, at roughly the same level as for 0,7-1,1 thousand rubles. Per ton, predicts Igor Pavenskiy. "The reasons are still the same: slow acceptance in ports, associated with stormy weather and the freezing of the Rostov port, and a strong ruble, whose exchange rate against the US dollar rose to 60,5 rubles last week," says Mr. Sizov.
Export prices for Russian wheat (FOB) while stagnating, remaining at $ 182 per ton, says Igor Pavenskiy. The same estimate is given in "Sovecon". "Exporters can not afford to reduce prices because of high domestic prices," explains Mr. Pavensky. At the same time, he argues, there were preliminary concerns that frosts and insufficient level of snow cover in the south of the country could damage winter crops. "If this situation persists until January of the year 2017, this may lead to an increase in export quotations," the analyst of Rusagrotrans assumes. At the end of last week, 17,4 million hectares of winter crops were planted against 16,3 million ha a year earlier, Sovekon reported.
This year, Russia has been collected about 117 million tons of grain, including 72 million tons of wheat, a record figure since 1978 years, said last week the Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev. Export of grain this season, the ministry expects at 35 million tonnes, wheat - 28 million tons.
"At the beginning of the new season grain exports lagged behind last year. This created concerns about the stability of our supplies. However, in November, the exporters have sharply increased the shipment ", - said earlier, Mr. Tkachev at the Government Hour in the State Duma. Igor Pavensky expects that the main increase of exports to the season of the season will take place in February-April 2017 years. Active supply will go into the second half of the season, he hopes to CEO "ProZerno" Vladimir Petrychenko.
See also ... 03 / 06 / 2016 Sovecon: record grain yield may not be reached 16 / 08 / 2013 Russia expands grain sales markets 17 / 07 / 2013 Exporters are faced with the problem of the quality of Russian wheat 30 Russia may lose almost 01 million tons of grain - Sovecon2013 / 20 / 06 Types of crops: included in the grain rally2012 / 10 / 26 Sovecon predicts a record export of grain / 07 Intervention wheat prices hit max mum2012 / 23 / 11 Russia in 2016 increased gross grain harvest by 08% 11 / 2012 / 7 Ministry of Agriculture raised purchase prices for wheat 72,9 / 24 / 01 Russia plans to collect 2013 million tons of grain 24 / 12 Demand raised prices for Russian wheat 2013 / 2013 / 30 Russian wheat continues to fall in price