The trend of increased consumption of dairy products in Russia, which was observed until September this year, may change in the near future. On the demand negatively affects the growth of world prices, which will reduce the supply of cheap imported products.
At the end of this year, consumption of dairy products can be reduced to 2-3%, writes "Kommersant".
Demand for dairy products, which grew from January to August of the year 2016, will begin to decline in the near future, the report of the National Union of Milk Producers ("Soyuzmoloko" unites more than 150 companies in the industry) and the MilkNews analytical center. Negatively, the market growth is influenced by the growing world prices, which is connected with the resumption of active demand in China. In January-August, consumption of drinking milk, according to preliminary data, increased by 0,5%, yoghurt - by 1,4%, yogurt - by 1,6%, cheese and cheese products - by 4,8%. This trend was largely ensured by increased supplies to the Russian market of cheap products, primarily from Belarus, analysts explain. Thus, the total volume of imports in the first eight months of this year increased by 11,5% to 4,7 million tons. Belarusian products occupied up to 95% of deliveries, depending on the category.
Start change the situation on the world market will force importers to reduce imports of cheap products, and raw material price increases will accelerate the rise in price of Russian brands, the report says. In this case on the basis of 2016 year price growth is unlikely to exceed the rate of inflation, said Executive Director of "Soyuzmoloko" Artem Belov. Dairy products are traditionally highly dependent on the growth of prices, any increase in them once a negative impact on demand, especially in terms of incomes fall, he recalls. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, in January-September, incomes fell by 5,3%.
One manufacturer claims that consumption of milk, yogurt, sour cream, cottage cheese is not shrinking, but consumers switched to cheaper brands. "27% of consumers are choosing cheaper brands than three months ago, including its own retail network brand. The most popular strategy for saving is to find stores with low prices ", - says the head of the Strategic Partnership Nielsen Russia Saltanat Nysanova.
Production of dairy products in Russia increased by 2016% in January-August 1,9 years, until 8 million tons. Thus, the issue of drinking milk increased by 0,9% (3,6 million tons), yogurt - to 2,6% (530,4 thousand tons.), Yogurt - to 1,5% (754,1 thousand tons.), Cheese and cheese products - 2,2% (395,5 thousand . tonnes).
The high share of cheap imported products on the Russian market, which was observed in the beginning and the middle of the year, negatively affected the competitiveness of Russian producers. In the conditions of growth in production costs due to the devaluation of the ruble, enterprises could not raise prices for their products, which negatively affected profitability, the report of Soyuzmolok and MilkNews says. The lack of own raw materials also remains a negative factor: according to Soyuzmolok, today Russia provides itself with marketable milk at 72,1%. Assess the level of profitability of the industry entirely difficult, depending on the category, it can differ at times, says Artem Belov.
PepsiCo (brands Vesely Molochnik, Domik v Derevne, Kubanskaya Burenka, etc.) and Danone (Aktivia, Prostokvashino, Petmol), which account for about 30% of the total dairy market in Russia did not disclose production plans. Metro Cash & Carry and Perekrestok have not yet noticed a decrease in demand for dairy products. The Perekrestok spokesman added that there are “minor problems” with raw materials, mostly for butter and cheese, but they do not increase the cost of production and are seasonal. Valio (Viola cheese), Lenta, Auchan and Dixie did not comment.
In 2014, the dairy products consumption in Russia declined to 1,6%, to 39,2 million tons, 2015 year - 2%, to 38,3 million tons, the materials "Soyuzmoloko". At the end of this year drop may reach 2-3%, Artem Belov said.
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