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Vadim Drobiz ( "TSIFRRA")

The continuation of the fall of the Russian alcohol market, which since the beginning of the year as a whole has declined by 2%, should not be viewed as a “sobering trend” of Russians. The information provided by Rosstat, although it does not take into account the sales of counterfeit alcohol, generally reflects the real state of affairs.

It is known that the country is experiencing another round of crisis. Under these conditions, alcohol consumption grows in any country regardless of economic development, and growth is primarily due to strong alcohol - mostly cheap and illegal.

On this basis, alcohol consumption in Russia can only grow. But there is a tricky moment: I'm talking about alcohol consumption per capita. If we talk about consumption in general, then the opposite trend is possible - a decline.

Why does it become possible? Exclusively for demographic reasons. The domestic alcohol market has been in a demographic crisis since 2008. Since 1990, the birth rate in Russia has halved compared with the last years of the USSR, and in 2008, consumers from this demographic group entered the alcohol market and brought down its beer sector, and in 2012, it was wine. Their further reduction, according to my forecasts, will last to 2020 and 2024 of the year, that is, each of 12 years. In 2018 – 2019, a crisis in the hard alcohol market will begin, and it can also last for 12 years.

That is, in general, according to the Rosstat data, it can be said that the annual volume of alcohol purchased at retail in the country will fall due to an objective reduction in the number of consumers. But per capita consumption - even with all the restrictive and restrictive measures of recent times - definitely will not fall.

Absolutely the same can be said about the pre-New Year purchases of the ascendant. If we consider the legal retail, no significant ups or downs should not wait. The situation develops according to the laws of the crisis.

Vadim Drobiz Director of the Center for Research of the Federal and Regional Alcohol Markets

See also ... 20 / 07 / 2016 Vadim Drobiz: “We already have state monopoly” 30 / 03 / 2016 Alcohol production in Russia has decreased dramatically12 / 01 / 2016 Analyst: alcohol is still protected from currency “jumps” 13 / 01 / 2014 / 13 / 12 / 2013 / 17 /NNXX / 07 / 2013 / NNXX changed the owners and started the business / 15 Rosalkogolregulirovanie is going to control the production alcohol consumption from space is useless11 / 2012 / 28 In Ukraine, developers have lost love selling its only factory

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